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Motor City

21 July 2013

Motor City

By Gwynne Dyer

As it happens, I was in Detroit this month. I went to see the art and the architecture, domains in which Detroit is still one of the richest cities in the United States. It’s broken, and it’s broke, and now it’s officially bankrupt too. But bankruptcy is actually a device for escaping from unpayable debt.

All over the world, Detroit’s bankruptcy is being used as an excuse to pore over what’s sometimes called “ruin porn”: pictures of the rotting, empty houses that still stand and the proud skyscrapers that have already been torn down. There’s even a self-guided tour of “the ruins of Detroit” available on the internet: people take a melancholy pleasure in contemplating the calamitous fall of a once-great city.

Two-thirds of Detroit’s population have fled in the past fifty years, but there were specific reasons why Detroit fell into decline, and there are also reasons to believe that it could flourish again – not as a major manufacturing centre, perhaps, but “major manufacturing centres” probably don’t have a bright long-term future anywhere. There are other ways to flourish, and Detroit has some valuable resources.

The events that triggered the city’s decline are well known. Large numbers of African-Americans from the southern states migrated to Detroit to meet the demand for factory workers during and after the Second World War. Being mostly unskilled, they started in the worst jobs – and even after they had acquired the skills, they stayed in low-paying jobs because of racial prejudice.

Spurned by the unions and victimised by a racist police force, they eventually rioted in the summer of 1967. Brutal policing made matters worse and hundreds were killed, but the worst consequence was the fear that the violence engendered. The great majority of the whites just left left town

I first went to Detroit a couple of months after the riots, and driving into the city the fear was actually visible. The traffic lights are spaced far apart on Woodward Avenue, and as each light turned green all the cars would accelerate away – and then, if the next light was still red, they would slow more and more until they were barely crawling, but they dared not stop for fear of being attacked.

Then, finally, the light would turn green, and they would race away through the intersection – only to go through the whole process again as they approached the next light. It was this unreasoning fear that caused the massive “white flight” to the suburbs and the hollowing out of Detroit.

The big automobile companies also took fright, and the new car plants were built elsewhere. As the jobs disappeared and the population dropped, the tax base fell even faster, for most of the people left behind in the city were poor or unemployed African-Americans. The city could no longer afford to provide good police or medical services, so even more people left.

This vicious circle has lasted half a century, exacerbated by much corruption and maladministration. This month’s declaration of bankruptcy is a brutal measure, for much of the debt being repudiated is the pensions of city employees, but it may give the city’s government enough leeway to begin rebuilding public services. If they are restored, much else could follow.

Let me explain what brought me to Detroit early this month. We were doing what we dubbed the “Rust Belt Art and Architecture Tour”: driving from Buffalo to Cleveland and then to Detroit, ending up in Chicago.

All these cities took a terrible beating as the industries they were built on died or moved overseas (except Chicago, which is “too big to fail”). But three generations ago, when they were the industrial heartland of the United States, they were very rich – at just the right time.

The first decades of the 20th century were the heyday of art deco, the most beautiful architectural style of the modern era. That was also the period when newly rich captains of industry could scoop up bucket-loads of new European and American art: impressionist, expressionist, abstract, the lot – and they lived mostly in what are now the Rust Belt cities.

So they put up dozens of art deco towers: the Guaranty Building in downtown Detroit is my candidate for the world’s most beautiful office building. They filled their homes with best of modern art – and, in the end, donated most of it to the local art galleries. Even in Detroit, where so much has been lost, more than half of those buildings are still there. So is all of the art.

Other cities would kill for these assets. In a post-industrial economy where people have more choice about where they live, they are assets that can actually attract population – especially since, in Detroit’s case, the people who left didn’t go far. Most of them are still out there in the suburbs that surround Detroit.

The city of Detroit’s population has fallen from 2 million to 700,000 over the past fifty years, but the metropolitan area’s population has stayed stable at around four and a half million for all of that time. The job, really, is to bridge the devastated middle ring of low-income Detroit housing and reconnect the outer suburbs with the city centre. Detroit can rise again. It just takes the right strategy.

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To shorten to 725 words, omit paragraphs 2, 6 and 7. (“All…city”; and “I first…Detroit”)

Obama: The Limits of Power

30 October 2008

Obama: The Limits of Power

 By Gwynne Dyer

My favourite rumour about President-elect Barack Obama’s cabinet is that he will create the post of Secretary of the Environment and offer it to Arnold Schwarzenegger. Of course, it’s unlikely that Schwarzenegger would take the offer, because being governor of California is a much more satisfying job, but Obama will need a couple of Republicans in his cabinet and Arnie is serious about the environment. Stranger things have happened.

I know, Obama won’t officially be president-elect until Tuesday night, so I shouldn’t put it like that yet, but it really is over. The media have to keep it looking like a real race right down to the finish line, but you know and I know that Obama is going to win, possibly by a landslide.

With both presidential candidates essentially running against George W. Bush, the one who wasn’t a Republican started with a huge built-in advantage, and then the financial crisis and the recession sealed John McCain’s fate. So now it’s time to consider what Obama will do with his power — and even how much power he will really have, given that his spending options will be severely constrained by that same recession.

It helps that the Democrats will have firm control of both houses of Congress, of course, but Obama will benefit even more from the fact that he is probably going to enjoy one of the longest honeymoons in presidential history. Americans, including most of those who didn’t vote for him, are going to be immensely pleased with themselves for having elected an African-American as president.

It won’t transform race relations at every level and it certainly won’t lift all African-Americans into the middle class, but it will be seen as erasing the deepest stain on American history, the legacy of slavery. Most Americans have been uncomfortable about that for a long time, and they will make Obama a symbol of that cleansing even though he never set himself up as such. This will serve him well when he has to do politically unpopular things.

More importantly, he doesn’t face a long list of unpopular things that he must do at once. Rolling back the Bush tax cuts for the rich is not going to alienate a lot of people, nor is imposing tighter regulation on the financial industry.

Obama is extraordinarily fortunate that the huge financial bubble that built up on Bush’s watch collapsed while the man responsible was still in office, so people will remember for some time that the recession that dominates the first years of his term is not actually his fault. That memory will eventually erode, of course, but if it is an ordinary two-year recession it will be coming to an end by the time the public starts to blame him for it, and the economy could be booming again by the time he runs for re-election.

But that is getting well ahead of ourselves. What big thing is he actually going to do early in his term to make his mark? It needs to be something that doesn’t cost too much, at least in the early stages, so the answer is almost certainly health care reform.

The long-term cost of giving basic medical cover to the sixth of the American population that currently has no cover whatever will not be small, but Obama is unlikely to go for a comprehensive national system of the kind that exists in almost all other developed countries. The power of the insurance companies is too great for that. So it will be some insurance-based system supported by federal subsidies, and by the time the system is up and running federal revenues should be recovering from the recession.

Obama can also expect a honeymoon internationally, but it could be shorter. Opinion polls consistently showed that 80 to 85 percent of people in other developed countries would back Obama if they had votes in the American election, and his support in developing countries is even higher. The standing of the United States in the eyes of foreigners, so badly battered by eight years of George W. Bush, will soar as soon as Obama takes office — but there is reason to doubt that American foreign policy will actually change all that much.

Obama will pull American troops out of Iraq by 2010 as promised, but he is promising to reinforce the US military commitment in Afghanistan, the allegedly “winnable” war, and he is also on the record as supporting American attacks on Pakistani territory without Islamabad’s permission. His forte has never been foreign policy, and there are disturbing signs that he has bought into the whole “war on terror” narrative that has dominated the American domestic debate since the shock of 9/11.

If that is the case, then Obama’s present popularity in other countries will decline quite rapidly, but that is of limited interest to most Americans. They want healing at home more than anything else, and Obama can deliver that.

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To shorten to 725 words, omit paragraphs 5 and 6. (“It won’t…industry”)

IF RUNNING THE COLUMN AFTER THE ELECTION RESULTS ARE KNOWN, OMIT INSTEAD PARAGRAPHS 2 AND 6 (“I know…landslide”; and “More…industry”)