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Morgan Tsvangirai

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Zimbabwe Deal

12 September 2008

Zimbabwe Deal

By Gwynne Dyer

“We have a deal,” said Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of Zimbabwe’s Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), on Thursday. President Robert Mugabe, who has ruled the country with an iron hand for the past 28 years, will still head the cabinet, but it will contain one more member from the opposition than from Mugabe’s ZANU-PF party. Tsvangirai will be prime minister, chairing a newly created Council of State that “supervises” the cabinet.

Nobody knows what that means, but it is obviously an unworkable arrangement. The crucial question is who controls the security forces, and the real answer to that, even if the deal gives day-to-day control of the police to the MDC, is Mugabe. Zimbabwe’s senior army and police officers are bound to Mugabe by hoops of steel, for the many murders they have committed to keep him in power would not be pardoned by any successor regime. Unless, of course, an amnesty for all that killing is a secret part of the deal.

That would change a lot of things, for the army and police high command could then see a future for themselves past the end of Mugabe, and might no longer be unconditionally on his side. South African President Thabo Mbeki, the mediator who has structured this deal, knows that such an amnesty would help to ease Mugabe gradually out of power while preserving his dignity — and keeping ZANU-PF in power.

Those have been Mbeki’s goals all along. Although he is almost two decades younger than the 84-year-old Mugabe, they both belong to the “independence generation” of southern African leaders who led the struggle against white minority rule. Mugabe has wrecked Zimbabwe’s economy, ordered the killing of tens of thousands of its citizens, and driven one-quarter of the population abroad as economic refugees — but in Mbeki’s eyes he still deserves respect for his historic role.

That made Mbeki a very poor choice as mediator in the eyes of the opposition, but South Africa is the regional superpower, so if Mbeki wants the job, he gets it. The Southern African Development Community and the African Union, the two regional organisations with some say in the matter, were hardly going to tell him to step aside. The outcome of his mediation reflects these facts.

This is very difficult for the Zimbabwean opposition, who won a parliamentary majority in the election last March. Tsvangirai also beat Mugabe by a clear margin in the presidential vote, even after all the intimidation and ballot-box stuffing by the regime. However, since Tsvangirai fell slightly short of 50 percent of the votes when the regime announced the results of the presidential election (almost a month late), he was forced into a run-off against Mugabe in June.

The regime mobilised the ZANU-PF party’s various militias, backed by the army and police, to kill or terrorise enough MDC supporters to win the second vote. Several hundred were murdered, and several hundred thousand were driven from their homes. Tsvangirai withdrew from the second round of the election a few days before the vote to avoid further bloodshed, since the regime was clearly going to announce a ZANU-PF victory anyway, and Mugabe was duly “re-elected” president in an unopposed vote.

In the circumstances, the MDC’s wariness about any negotiated power-sharing deal was understandable, especially given the mediator’s obvious bias. “What we got at the end of the day was nearly a sister-sister power-sharing, so it’s not exactly what we wanted initially,” said Lovemore Moyo, MDC chairman and the newly chosen parliamentary speaker. “We are ready and prepared to work for Zimbabweans without reservations, but obviously you have to be careful when you work with a party like Zanu-PF.”

So what calculation can have led Tsvangirai, Moyo and the other MDC leaders to accept a deal that leaves Mugabe as president and at the head of the cabinet? They don’t trust Mbeki, because they know that he does not want the MDC to end up in power regardless of what Zimbabweans think. Were they pressured into the deal? Could they see no alternative except civil war?

Maybe, but not necessarily. If a secret amnesty for the crimes committed by the military and police is part of the deal, then their need to keep Mugabe in power evaporates. And Thabo Mbeki has to relinquish the presidency of South Africa next year, so after that the neighbourhood giant will no longer be determined to protect Mugabe and keep ZANU-PF in power.

Mbeki’s successor is already known. It is Jacob Zuma, who has openly condemned Mugabe and criticised Mbeki’s handling of the situation. The decision of a South African court last Thursday that corruption charges against Zuma were politically motivated and could not proceed clears the final obstacle from his path to the presidency — and when he is running South Africa, the regional balance of forces will shift radically in the MDC’s favour.

So the Zimbabwean opposition has accepted an unsatisfactory deal now in the hope that next year will bring more. Since Zimbabwe desperately needs foreign economic aid and definitely does not need continued political paralysis or civil war, it was a responsible decision. Whether it is the right decision, nobody yet knows.

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To shorten to 725 words, omit paragraphs 5 and 8. (“That made…facts”; and “In the circumstances…ZANU-PF”)

Zimbabwe: A Little Perspective

19 April 2008

Zimbabwe: A Little Perspective

By Gwynne Dyer

All praise to the South African Transport and Allied Workers Union, which refused for four days to unload a shipment of Chinese arms destined for landlocked Zimbabwe. That was long enough for a South African court to issue a judgement refusing to let the 77 tonnes of weapons be shipped across the country to Zimbabwe, despite the South African government’s unwillingness to intervene.

Of course, the Chinese ship then just sailed up the coast to Mozambique. The Chinese weapons, which were shipped three days after President Robert Mugabe lost the Zimbabwean election on 29 March, will still reach his army, police and party militia in time to terrorise the voters into reversing last month’s verdict in a run-off presidential election. But it was nice to see some fellow Africans take a stand against his thuggery.

All praise also to former United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan. After meeting Zimbabwean opposition leaders in Kenya on Friday, he asked bluntly, “Where are the Africans? Where are their leaders and the countries in the region, what are they doing?” The answer, as Annan knew very well, is next to nothing. But why not?

Robert Mugabe, who has ruled Zimbabwe since independence 28 years ago, is now attempting to steal back last month’s election. Three weeks later the results of the presidential race have still not been published, almost certainly because he lost by a wide margin to opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai. But Mugabe has already said that there must be a run-off election even before the votes are “re-counted.”

Meanwhile the militia of Mugabe’s Zanu-PF party, the so-called “war veterans,” are using the records from the polling booths in rural areas to identify villages that supported the opposition, and conducting mass beatings in those villages so that the residents vote correctly next time. Hundreds of people are in hospital with broken limbs after these beatings, and some are dead.

Then there is the economic disaster of Mugabe’s Zimbabwe, a country where unemployment is 80 percent and inflation is 160,000 percent. Almost 70 percent of working-age Zimbabweans have fled the country in search of work, and those still at home mostly live off their remittances. But they don’t live very long: life expectancy in Zimbabwe is in the mid-30s.

This is in glaring contrast to the countries that surround Zimbabwe, which have reasonably healthy economies, free media, democratic politics and the rule of law. Mugabe’s regime in not only hurting Zimbabweans; it is doing huge damage to the region’s image in the rest of the world.

So why does the main regional organisation, the Southern African Development Community, not take a stronger stand against Mugabe? Why did South African President Thabo Mbeki insist that there is “no crisis” in Zimbabwe, when obviously there is?

It’s all about perspective. Mugabe may be a monster, but as one of the last surviving leaders of the independence generation he is a sacred monster. Moreover, many other African leaders are half-seduced by Mugabe’s claim that he is facing a re-colonisation attempt by Britain. It’s a comical notion for anybody who knows modern Britain, but in post-colonial Africa it has a certain resonance.

The fact is that Zimbabwe was once a British colony (called Rhodesia), and that Britain did nothing when the local white minority illegally seized independence. It took fifteen years of war and tens of thousands of African lives to overthrow the white minority regime, and at the end Britain promised to provide large amounts of money to buy out the white farmers who still owned most of the country’s good land. Then it reneged on its promise.

In 1997 Clare Short, the International Development Secretary in Tony Blair’s new government, wrote a famously stupid letter to the Zimbabwean government in which she said: “We do not accept that Britain has a special responsibility to meet the costs of land purchase in Zimbabwe. We are a new government from diverse backgrounds without links to former colonial interests. My own origins are Irish and, as you know, we were colonised, not colonisers.”

Mugabe was understandably enraged by a British politician of Irish origin claiming equal victim status with black Zimbabweans, and using that to repudiate Britain’s treaty obligations to Zimbabwe. Whether that explains his decision to drive the white farmers off their land without compensation three years later (and thus to wreck Zimbabwe’s economy) remains to be seen. But the prominence of those same white Zimbabweans in the opposition movement that sprang up after 2000, however understandable, certainly fed his paranoia.

The other disturbing thing, from an African point of view, is the disproportionate interest that the Western media take in the Zimbabwean tragedy. A US-backed occupation of Somalia by Ethiopian troops has plunged the country back into war, killing thousands and turning hundreds of thousands into refugees, and it barely gets mentioned in the Western press. Nor does the West seem to mind the striking absence of democracy in Angola, from which it buys a lot of oil. But about Zimbabwe, for some reason, it cares.

There is no Western plot to “re-colonise” Zimbabwe. Southern African countries need to bring pressure on Mugabe to accept his defeat in their own long-term self-interest. But they bring their own perspectives to the problem, and that makes it harder for them to act.

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To shorten to 725 words, omit paragraphs 11 and 12. (“In 1997…paranoia”)